Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Pre-performance Lobby events. We believe that there are two main reasons. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. People need to get a job, get out and work. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. He cares about the American people.. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Thus it would appear that bellwether. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. He is his own worst enemy.. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. . Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Its horrible. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. This is a high farming community.. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. This includes personalizing content and advertising. This claim is basically absurd. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Required fields are marked *. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. I just want Trump in. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Republican Gov. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. I dont watch TV. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . I think its very political right now, honestly. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. I trust the system implicitly, he said. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. That is, until this year. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I dont listen to the news. The counties are also mostly small and rural. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Im not happy with the way things are now. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. By Cara Ding. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Here's why. . Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. Its gone, Jacobs said. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Right now, its horrible. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. That is a very good thing to have. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor.
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