In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. 2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! The divisions were everywhere. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. 9. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. 2016 Election (1135) They're just facts about the vote. The divisions were everywhere. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Read about our approach to external linking. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Have you looked at the results of these counties? In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Joe Biden (631) No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Arapahoe County. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Contributors wanted 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed Ron Elving . . The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Go on, look them up! This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. hide caption. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. 6. All Rights Reserved. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. In communities . More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Bellwether 2016 View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. (i.e. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. 108,000 people. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. In their . "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. But it's also not unprecedented. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Jeff. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. University of New Hampshire . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Demographics (84) In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. The highest percentage being 66.1%. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Will That Last?]. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Do you know this baby? It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Watauga has gone for. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation.